January 2017’s Anticipated Game Releases

Last week we rolled out our new Hit Potential algorithm to score new releases on their likelihood of becoming a hit.

What is the Hit Potential score and how is it calculated?

  • We look at the revenue and install trajectory of new launches during their early weeks to identify characteristics of games that will have long term success
  • We score games from 1 (bust) to 100 (blockbuster)

Let’s run last month’s (January 2017) most anticipated releases through the algorithm to gauge their staying power…



Yu-Gi-Oh! Duel Links
 

  • Hit Potential Score: 27
  • Genre: Card Battlers
  • Publisher: Konami  
  • Release Date: Jan 11, 2017

Star Wars: Force Arena

  • Hit Potential Score: 27
  • Genre: Card Battlers
  • Publisher: Netmarble Games Corp.
  • Release Date: Jan 11, 2017

Bubble Witch 3 Saga 

  • Hit Potential Score: 21
  • Genre: Bubble Shooter
  • Publisher: King
  • Release Date: January 11, 2017

Pokémon Duel

  • Hit Potential Score: 20
  • Genre: Card Battlers
  • Publisher: The Pokemon Company
  • Release Date: Jan 24, 2017

Card battlers Yu-Gi-Oh! Duel Links and Star Wars Force Arena were the best of the bunch with scores in the high 20s. Bubble Witch 3 Saga and Pokémon Duel bring up the rear with scores in the low 20s.

Do scores in the 20s mean these are duds? Not exactly. What the scores do mean is given the level of monetization these games have, it will be challenging to use paid user acquisition to profitably drive growth. As a result, these games will likely fade and continue to drop on the charts.

Check out Fire Emblem Heroes Hit Potential. And stay tuned for scores on the rest of February’s top releases.

If you’re interest in seeing Hit Potential Scoring on more new releases, click here to schedule a demo.

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